I think the final barrier to entry - and I think it's a really really important one that exists for everybody - is say your goal is not to make an iOS app, and not to make a small physical product or an iPad case or something like that. What you want to do is make something that's closer to Facebook...an Internet-scalable application for everybody to use. Like you want to be the next Twitter or the next Facebook, that's your goal.

That path is not as clear because of the barriers to entry. There's no commoditized way for you to do that. There's EC2 and stuff like that, but there's the feeling that if you want to be the next Google, you're not going to become the next Google building on top of EC2...Even with venture capital, even with unlimited funds, how do I make an Internet-scale application? I think that's still more mysterious art than for example making an iOS app or doing physical manufacturing.

I believe this challenge exists just as much for developers building iOS apps, at least the interesting ones. It's true that Apple takes care of the purchase transaction, but isn't that about where it ends? Hasn't Marco Arment had to contend with the challenges of Instapaper's success and scaling a backend service to meet the needs of a growing user base? Most iOS apps that provide any real functionality are service apps that require a sophisticated infrastructure to meet their users' needs. Instagram's website offers little functionality but the iOS app provides access to a much richer level of services.

Platforms like EC2, Google App Engine, and (the admittedly less-affordable) Azure have certainly made it easier for small organizations to scale as their needs scale. I agree with Siracusa that scaling is the hardest barrier to overcome (and agree that Siri makes a good case study), but I do believe that EC2 and Azure have made real strides in commoditizing the availability of scalable services, to the point where developers are not having to start from ground zero and risk making the same mistakes that Facebook and eBay made years ago.

Siracusa concludes:

What's preventing me [from becoming the next Facebook]? Is it my ideas? Is it my skill? No, it's the reality that if you actually succeeded, you would be doomed because you have no idea how to make an application of that scale and basically nobody does.

This strikes me as overly pessimistic. Zynga and Dropbox run on EC2 and both have scaled from startup to major players without suffering the growing pains of Twitter.

At HP, then-CEO Leo Apothaker in August 2011 said:

Consumers are changing the use of their PC. The tablet effect is real and sales of the TouchPad are not meeting our expectations… 

By "tablet effect," Apothekar means "iPad" - there's no other tablet effect.

Now, just three months later, Adobe is saying some of the same things. In a post that seeks to clarify Adobe's announcement, Flash Product Manager Mike Chambers accepts that the messaging was flawed and is even more explicit in blaming Apple:

...the Flash Player was not on track to reach anywhere near the ubiquity of the Flash Player on desktops...Just to be very clear on this. No matter what we did, the Flash Player was not going to be available on Apple's iOS anytime in the foreseeable future.

Each announcement was precipitated by Apple and the disruption that iOS has imposed.

Both companies have been criticized for the medium in which their announcement was made (earnings call and blog post, respectively) and the messaging that accompanied the announcement.

Adobe at least seems to have made more effort to get out in front of the media and speak to their respective audiences, through Chambers' post and other posts by Ben Forta and the Flex team.

John Gruber has pointed out that "A lack of clear, concise, plainspoken communication is as sure a sign as any of poor leadership," and these two examples of once-great companies unable to control their messaging certainly bears that out.

Let's first take a step back to Flex, Adobe's platform for RIA development. Flex solves the "dumb and disconnected" problem of Web applications by keeping a channel open between client and server when using LiveCycle Data Services. It combines the best of desktop applications (a rich and intuitive user experience) and Web applications (a centralized data store and easy application distribution). I can understand why Flex is compelling.

AIR on the other hand requires both the runtime environment and the application executable to be installed on each user's local machine.

It's apparently quite easy to convert a Flex application to an AIR application. It's great that AIR applications are cross-platform. And the ability to interact with the user's local file system is a nice new addition. But the real argument I always hear for AIR applications is that the applications can function when the user is disconnected from the Internet, and data can be synched to a central repository when reconnected. The example of sales staff in the field is invariably given.

This is where it begins to lose me. Why is Adobe pushing the desktop as the future platform for deployment of  Rich Internet Applications? We've just spent the last ten years forcing the Web application to a point of maturity -- thanks in no small part to Macromedia and now Adobe -- where the richness of the desktop is finally available on the Web. After all that effort, why now turn back to the desktop, and the days of calls to a tech to come install some application on some machine up on the 20th floor?

With increasing Internet ubiquity and relatively affordable mobile broadband, AIR strikes me as something of a solution in search of a problem. At best, it seems a Band-Aid to tide us over to the days of true always-available Internet. I hope there's something to it that I'm not getting yet.

It started to go to hell about 20 minutes outside of Baltimore. The 1994 Mercury Villager minivan that Jen's folks let us borrow for the trip started to shimmy and handle erratically. Odd, since it had just been serviced. We pulled over and checked the front passenger tire, only to find that it was very hot. And then we saw the flames coming from behind the tire.

The tow truck driver sent by AAA gamely let the three of us pile into the truck as we towed the van to my cousin's house, where we were staying. After a chilled Friday night at The Wharf Rat, on Saturday morning before the fest we carefully drove the van the couple of blocks from my cousin's house to the Ford dealership for them to have a look. We were in no position to spend time trying to find a more affordable garage. We then borrowed my generous cousin's Jeep and made our way to the Festival while we awaited an estimate from the dealer.

There were shuttle buses to take festival-goers from one of the MTA stops to Pimlico, the site of the festival and home to the Preakness stakes. I was impressed at how efficiently this process went.

Once we finally made it to Virgin Festival, we had to contend with the heat and dust of the racetrack. Last year's festival was held in late September; this year's was early August. I'm not sure what made them change the schedule, but it was a bad move. The prospect of spending 10 or so hours in 100+ degree heat is as nightmarish as it sounds.

We were allowed to bring in two water bottles. On day one, there were huge lines at the two free water refill stations. Jen brought a couple of battery-powered misting fans that were a major hit with us and anyone who saw them.

The festival for me opened with Fountains of Wayne on the North stage, the main stage. It was great to see one of my favorite bands so close, and it was the first time I had seen them since 2004. I've found their current album, Traffic and Weather, to be weaker than previous efforts, but an uneven FoW album is sill better than most anything else. Besides, the lead single "Someone to Love" is excellent and sounded even better live.

This time through "Radiation Vibe," they threw in a little bit of the extended piano outro from "Layla." They did several acoustic songs, including "Hey Julie," and Chris Collingwood remarked that he hadn't been up this early since the eighties. I didn't even notice it at the time, but they didn't play "Stacy's Mom." I think they don't want to be pigeonholed by it. I'm sure some were disappointed by the omission, but I think it was probably a good move.

After Fountains of Wayne, I had a tough choice. I don't know why they scheduled Cheap Trick and The Fratellis at the same time since they are both basically power-pop outfits that appeal to the same crowd. Figuring I had very little chance to ever see The Fratellis again, I took off for the South stage to catch them. They started a few minutes late, and about that time I nearly passed out from the heat. I wasn't even drinking; it was simply unbearable. The Fratellis sounded great and I remembered why I loved their album so much. Apparently, I missed a fun show in Cheap Trick, with Rick Nielsen's five-necked guitar, not to mention a fat shirtless guy rocking out in the audience.

I wasn't able to hear their entire set, as I wanted to make it back to the North stage for Amy Winehouse. Her band was tight, and she sounded good. Seeing Amy Winehouse was one of the major draws of Virgin Festival for me this year. Obviously, there is a lot of concern about her health. She is rail-thin, especially when compared to how she used to look. She was a little shaky - at one time, she seemed frustrated when she pulled the cord out of her mike - but overall, I thought she gave a fine performance.

Winehouse was one of several artists to play both Virgin Festival in Baltimore and Lollapalooza in Chicago on the same weekend. I saw her on Saturday, and by Wednesday, she had collapsed and was rushed to the hospital, canceling her tour.

She tore through the best songs from Back to Black, including "You Know I'm No Good," "Love is a Losing Game," and of course closing with "Rehab." She also performed The Zutons' "Valerie," which was released on Mark Ronson's Version (which I picked up at the on-site Virgin Megastore. Sweet.).

I love Back to Black and I think she is one of the most exciting artists to come along in a long time. I wish her well, and I don't want to see how her tragic rock story in the making ends; I've seen that movie before.

In another somewhat questionable scheduling accident, Incubus followed Amy Winehouse, so a bunch of trashed obnoxious jerks came perilously close to seriously pissing me off. Put your damn shirt on. After her set, we got word from the Ford dealership that the van needed $2136 worth of repairs: front brake calipers, lines, pads, and rotors. Rear wheel cylinders, rear shoes and drums. WTF. We obviously weren't going to pay anything close to that. Now, it was time for some tough decisions; what to do about the van? How and when are we going to get home? Trying to answer questions like these, over the weekend, can seriously impede one's ability to rock out.

I tried to get into Peter Bjorn and John, but honestly, I don't see the appeal. I did enjoy the late afternoon cowbell action of LCD Soundsystem. It was so freakin hot that I couldn't bring myself to eat much of anything on Saturday, but by the time Beastie Boys took the stage at 6:15, the worst of the heat had let up and I was ready to sit back and take it in. I expected to do the same for The Police. I did not expect to be completely riveted by them, which I was.

I enjoyed every minute of that band; and that's exactly what they were. There were three people contributing equally to produce their sound, and it was incredible, an absolute highlight of the show and one that I am glad to be able to say that I have seen, their meandering seven-minute jazz "reimagining" of "Roxanne" notwithstanding.

After crashing out at my cousin's (I have to say, my cousin treated us incredibly well, but for some unknown reason, her house is not air conditioned), we tried on Sunday morning to secure a rental car for Monday's trip back to SC. We started out by going online, as we always do.

Following a frustrating period of not finding available autos or acceptable pricing, we broke down and called AAA. For the second time in the trip, AAA came through, securing us a great price on a RAV4 big enough to get us home without breaking the bank.

On Sunday, the decision was made to relocate the minivan to a garage near Jen's uncle's house in Manassas, where a second opinion on the repairs could be done and where Jen's uncle could handle selling the car if it came to that. AAA had been incredibly useful so far; now, we would only need them to tow the minivan the 30 or so minutes from the Ford dealership in Baltimore to the garage in Manassas. Should be no problem...

The opener on Sunday was Cansei de Ser Sexy. They railed against United Airlines, who apparently caused the band to miss their Lollapalooza gig on Saturday. Sorry, Chicago, but you missed out - they were great, a lot of fun, and totally weird.

Sunday was overcast for most of the day, which gave the festival a completely different, more relaxed vibe. People were less on edge and less likely to get carried out on stretchers. I did see one guy during Interpol get wrestled down by staff and escorted out of the facilities. There was a huge crowd gathered around him and everyone was asking each other what he had done. By and large, the crowd was incredibly cool.

The day rolled on with Regina Spektor, who performed solo - a capella, on piano, and guitar. In addition to her recognizable tracks from Soviet Kitsch and Begin to Hope, she did a great version of John Lennon's "Real Love," which she has recorded for Instant Karma: The Amnesty International Campaign to Save Darfur. Apparently she has a pretty big lesbian following - news to me. Jen can't believe that I like Regina Spektor but not Tori Amos. Their sound and sensibilities are similar, but I find Regina Spektor to be a more interesting songwriter.

Spektor was followed by the mighty Spoon, which was another of the major draws for me this year, and they did not disappoint. Well, not much anyway - they didn't play "The Way We Get By" or "Sister Jack," but damn, "I Turn My Camera On" and "Lines In The Suit" sounded freakin' great.

After Spoon, there wasn't anything I wanted to see until Yeah Yeah Yeahs. The next band up was Panic! At The Disco, who I had Heard! About But Had No Opinion Of. I was highly skeptical but I have to say, they were incredibly entertaining, if a bit loud to these old ears. It was great to a band like this incorporate the piano so centrally into their sound. Their cover of "The Weight" by The Band was a well-executed surprise.

The Yeah Yeah Yeahs found us back on the lawn, relaxing as much as one possibly can to the dulcet tones of Karen O. Around that time, the clouds started rolling in. We checked out both Interpol (Smiths-influenced but sterile) and Velvet Revolver (thankfully playing both GnR and STP), and I was looking forward to closing out the night with MIA, but when the skies opened up, we decided we'd had enough of the great music, food, and scenery. Besides, on Sunday night we were staying in a hotel on the way to DC and we all just wanted to crash out with some AC before the long drive on Monday.

On Monday morning, we loaded up my cousin's Jeep and headed back up to Charm City to pick up the RAV4 rental car for the ride home. We also needed to get AAA to tow the minivan from the Ford dealership to the garage in Manassas. And that's where AAA finally let us down. See, they have a policy of "one tow per breakdown," and of not towing from a garage where a car can be repaired, even if it is for $2136.

So we carefully drove the minivan to the IHOP across the street (definitely not a garage) and called AAA for a tow to Manassas. They were pretty much on to us from the get go, but they also were pretty cool about it, and a tow truck arrived before I had finished my coffee. AAA comes through yet again.

We thought we were well on our way home with the worst behind us, and that probably would have been true, if I hadn't had so much fun driving the RAV4. 88 in a 65 on HWY 29 near Lynchburg. Damn. I guess I had it coming.

And people have a right to have a gun in their house, if that's what they want. If you accept the risk that a gun in the house is 22 times more likely to kill you or someone you love than it is to be used in self-defense, that's your determination to make.

But do either of those cases call for an AK-47 automatic assault rifle, an instrument designed quite simply to kill people?

I took this picture at the pawn shop (right next to the cash advance place!) a couple of blocks from my house. Lord.

The local paper has a story on the sale of AK-47s at David's Pawn Shop:

[Owner David] Dresner said most guns used in violent crimes are bought illegally or stolen from a responsible owner.

"Could it get into the wrong hands? I guess," he said about the AK-47s. "But the average person who buys it is legit."

And yet, local police are already finding evidence at crime scenes:

Locally, Lt. Les Herring of the Rock Hill Police Department said several shell casings from the high-powered rifles have turned up at crime scenes recently. He said there are two or three unsolved shootings, none fatal, where investigators found the bullet shells.

"We know people are shooting them, but that's about all we know," he said.

There ought to be a law.

To add insult to injury, the stock was down 7% as the company announced losses.

Netflix is in a serious battle with Blockbuster. Customers of Blockbuster Online have the option of returning their movies to one of those brick-and-mortar stores taking up space across America, and picking up an additional film while they are there.

I hate Blockbuster with every fiber of my being and haven't been inside one of their stores in years. They were the first company that I came to despise - even before Wal-Mart. But I have to admit, Blockbuster has taken the apparent liability of all this real estate and turned it into a competitive advantage, one that Netflix currently doesn't have an answer for.

The Netflix Watch Now feature is a step in the right direction. It's an interesting counter to Blockbuster, but until they release a Mac client (which doesn't seem too likely right now) I can't get too excited about it.

Come on Netflix, pull out of these doldrums. It's time for Act 2: get these movies over the Web onto my TV.

But the release of the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) this week points out that Al Qaida is more likely to attack on US soil because of its association with the separate Al Qaida in Iraq.

It's another instance of the hypocrisy. We're going to fight them over here because we're fighting them over there. Can anyone rationally believe that we are not creating more hatred and increasing the number of terrorists by our continued presence?

It's a tragedy on a global scale, and there is no truly satisfactory answer in sight. But we must begin to get out. Now.

The biggest challenge I saw in porting this blog to BlogCFC was to export the posts and then import them to the database. Typepad's text-export does not export posts in a structured format, but a friend wrote a Perl script to transform the plain text into XML, and I wrote a ColdFusion page to import that XML into the database.

So to find another Web host that supported cffile, cfdirectory, and Enterprise Manager connections but didn't charge $300/yr for hosting was tough. Since Typepad is pretty cheap, I'll be sticking with this platform for awhile.